Toronto is the place to be. It’s smart, exciting, cosmopolitan and cool. So why are Canadians leaving the Greater Toronto Area?
The GTA has lost 400,000 over the past six years, according to a recent report. The survey by Toronto Metropolitan University’s Centre for Urban Research and Land Development sums up the main reason in one word: affordability. For many, the exodus is a short trip, an exchange of abbreviations — from the GTA to the GGH, the outer Greater Golden Horseshoe. Many of these residents once lived in Peel, York or within Toronto city limits. Meanwhile, Durham, Simcoe and Halton recorded slight increases in population during this period. In addition to the cost of housing, the type of housing that is being built is a factor, according to the report. The GTA, and Canada in general, is experiencing a critical deficit in the kinds of dwellings that people want, especially families. Developers have focused on high-end apartments and condominiums that can bring a larger profit, and less on homes that are within reach of middle-income Canadians. Demand is high for single-detached and semi-detached houses in the GTA, and supply hasn’t kept pace. When municipal governments have tried to address the issue, their housing targets have often been for total units, which has tended to stimulate construction of apartments rather than low- and medium-density houses, townhouses, and stacked townhouses. The Centre for Urban Research and Land Development report concludes: “The bottom line is that we anticipate the continued dispersal of the residents of the GTA, particularly those residing in Toronto, York, Peel and Halton, as they search for the type and price of housing they want elsewhere in the GGH and other parts of the province.” For some who do stay in the GTA, dreams of home ownership have often been put on hold, as a result of soaring prices, bidding wars and now higher interest rates. Incredibly, the average mortgage payment in Ontario now represents 60 percent of disposable household income. That is one reason that the number of renters in the province grew 21.5 percent in 2021, while the number of homeowners increased by just 8.4 percent, according to Statistics Canada. This trend began gathering steam even before the Bank of Canada’s recent interest rate hikes. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation has estimated that 1.85 million new homes will need to be built in Ontario to meet demand and moderate prices sufficiently for middle-income buyers. To achieve this will require a 28 percent increase in the current rate of residential construction. Given a proliferation of zoning restrictions, supply chain issues, shortages of skilled labour and other factors, such a brisk pace is unlikely to be achievable in the near-term. Although Toronto may be the place to be, for many Canadians it’s the place they once were. The irony, of course, is that the GTA is a destination for talented professionals from throughout Canada and across the globe. For this particular demographic, Toronto will continue to be an attractive option, even as Canadians of modest means look for greener pastures elsewhere. Comments are closed.
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AuthorLarry Weltman is a Customer Service Representative for AccessEasyFunds Limited, or AEF, an Ontario-based firm Archives
November 2022
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